Quantitative Assessment of Technology Infusion in Satellite Communication Constellation Architectures

A methodology for quantitative assessment of new technologies is presented in the context of communications satellite constellations. The fundamental idea is that new technologies will shift the Pareto-optimal frontier when considering tradeoffs between performance, lifecycle cost and capacity. The suggested process first establishes a baseline by finding a Pareto optimal set of architectures on the basis of mature, state-of-theart technologies (technology readiness level TRL=8). Lifecycle cost, performance and capacity of each architecture are predicted by a modular software simulation. The fidelity of the simulation is ascertained by benchmarking against existing systems such as Iridium and Globalstar. Next, a set of potential candidate technologies is identified whose TRL is in the range of 5-7. Each of these technologies is modelled and infused individually into the simulation and the effect on the Pareto front is observed, relative to the baseline case. The next step consists of analyzing allowable pairs of technologies to predict their joint effect. The methodology is demonstrated for a set of four technologies applicable to Low Earth Orbit (LEO) communications satellite constellations: optical intersatellite links (OISL), asynchronous transfer mode (ATM), large-scale deployable reflectors (LDR) and digital beamforming (DBF). The proposed methodology is potentially helpful in technology selection as well as in technology portfolio management.